Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed in 2027?

"Should I wait for rates to come down?" is one of the questions we hear most from buyers right now, and it's easy to see why. After more than two years of rate hikes and cuts, everyone wants a signal that borrowing is about to get cheaper. Here's what the data actually says as of September 2026, and what it means if you're shopping for a home in Calgary this fall.

Where Rates Stand Today

On September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive decision, keeping the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. In its own words, the Bank says recent data came in "largely in line" with its July forecast and a broader economic recovery is underway , but "uncertainty about the sustainability of the rebound has increased" because of new trade tensions between Canada and the US.

The Bank's biggest concern right now is oil. Middle East supply disruptions have kept energy prices elevated, and the Bank has explicitly warned that prolonged high energy prices could "spill over and turn into persistent inflation." Inflation is currently running near 3%, largely because of gasoline; core inflation is closer to 2%. The Bank's own guidance is that it stands "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed" ,meaning a cut isn't off the table, but neither is a hike if energy prices or tariffs push inflation higher. The next decision lands October 28, 2026. Worth noting: the Bank of Canada's own July 2026 Monetary Policy Report doesn't publish a numeric rate path , it projects GDP growth reaching 1.8% in 2027-28 and inflation returning near 2% in early 2027, but leaves the actual rate decisions data-dependent, decision by decision.

What the Big Six Banks Actually Expect for 2027

Since the Bank of Canada doesn't publish its own rate forecast, it's worth going straight to the source on the other side: the major banks' own economics teams, whose job is literally to predict this. Pulling directly from each bank's own published economic outlook (not a broker roundup), all six agree the policy rate holds at 2.25% through the rest of 2026. Where they genuinely disagree is 2027:

Sources: Bank of Canada policy statement (September 2, 2026) and Monetary Policy Report (July 15, 2026); RBC Economics, Financial Market Forecasts (March 2026); Scotiabank Economics, Forecast Tables (January 15, 2026); National Bank Financial, Monthly Economic Monitor (July 24, 2026); CIBC Capital Markets, Forecast Update Table (January 5, 2026); TD Economics, Quarterly Economic Forecast (March 17, 2026); BMO Economics figure via a Canadian Mortgage Trends roundup (August 13, 2026), as BMO's own report could not be independently accessed.

RBC forecasts the steepest path, expecting the rate to climb to 3.25% by the end of 2027. National Bank and CIBC both see a gradual rise through 2027, landing around 2.75% by mid-to-late year. Scotiabank sees a somewhat earlier and larger move, to 3.00% by year-end. TD and BMO, meanwhile, expect the rate to stay flat at 2.25% right through the end of 2027 , no hike at all.

That's a genuinely useful thing to sit with: professional bank economists, looking at the same data, land in different places on where rates go from here. If the experts are split, the honest answer to "will rates drop" is that nobody knows for certain , but the range of credible outcomes for 2027 runs from "flat" to "a gradual step up," not a return to a lower-rate environment.

What This Means for Calgary Buyers

Put those two trends together , softer condo prices paired with a rate environment that isn't forecast to get meaningfully cheaper , and the math for many buyers actually favours acting sooner rather than waiting for a rate drop that even the banks who disagree on 2027 aren't promising. Waiting on the sidelines could mean paying a similar (or higher) monthly payment on a home that costs more once demand catches back up.

What Buyers Can Do Now

• Get pre-approved and hold a rate. Most lenders will hold a rate for 90-120 days, which protects you if rates tick up before you close.
• Ask your mortgage broker about the bank split. With TD and BMO forecasting flat rates and four others forecasting increases, a broker can walk you through how a fixed vs. variable choice plays out under either scenario.
• Factor in property type. If you're buying a condo, the current buyer-favorable supply gives you room to negotiate on price , useful leverage even if your rate isn't as low as you'd like.
• Revisit the numbers at each Bank of Canada decision. Mark October 28, 2026 on your calendar; it's the next point where the rate outlook could shift.

The Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada itself isn't promising cuts, and the country's biggest bank economists can't agree on whether 2027 brings hikes or more of the same , but not one of them is forecasting a meaningful drop. If you've been waiting on the sidelines for cheaper borrowing, it may be worth shifting the conversation from "when will rates fall" to "how do I make today's rates and today's Calgary market work for me." Our team can walk you through current mortgage broker referrals, run the numbers on specific neighbourhoods and property types, and help you decide whether now or later makes more sense for your situation.

This article reflects the Bank of Canada's own policy statements and Monetary Policy Report, and each major bank's own published economic forecast, current as of September 2026. It's intended as general market information, not personalized financial or mortgage advice , please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific situation.

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